Union Budget 2024-25 India Modi Government Finance Minister will focus on Viksit Bharat plan said Morgan Stanley

Budget 2024: The Government of India will present the full budget for the financial year 2024-25 on 23 July and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the country's budget in Parliament for the 7th consecutive time as the Finance Minister. Not only the country's economic institutions and financial experts but also foreign economic institutes are keeping an eye on India's budget.

Opinion of global brokerage company Morgan Stanley on India's budget

Global brokerage company Morgan Stanley has released a report on Wednesday regarding the budget of Modi 3.0 government to be presented on July 23. Morgan Stanley has estimated that the budget may present a blueprint for 'developed India' till 2047 and a plan for fiscal consolidation. Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will focus on presenting medium-term plans to bring India as a developed country after 23 years in the budget to be presented at the end of July.

Morgan Stanley changed its outlook on jobs and income tax

Morgan Stanley does not expect a cut in personal income tax as its base case, as was reported by the media in June. The research firm said in a note that India's medium-term goal of job creation will be achieved through capital expenditure. It estimates that the share of capital expenditure in GDP will increase from 3.2 per cent in FY24 to 3.5 per cent in FY25.

Mentioned the budget allocation of Power Grid and NTPC

Research firm Morgan Stanley also said in its note that the government will increase the allocation to Power Grid and NTPC compared to the interim budget allocation. There are expectations that the government is likely to increase the allocation in the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) to boost demand in tier 2-3 cities. Clarity on EV incentives including the launch of FAME 3 as the current scheme, Electric Mobility Promotion Scheme (EMPS) will end on July 31, 2024.

What is special in Morgan Stanley's report

  • Morgan Stanley estimates that with a fiscally prudent stance, the emphasis will remain on capital expenditure as compared to revenue expenditure.
  • Along with this, focus will be on targeted social sectors along with improving access to physical, social and digital infrastructure.
  • It is also expected that in the budget, special attention will be given to the framework and planning for a developed India by the year 2047.
  • This budget is expected to contain a medium-term plan for fiscal consolidation beyond 2025-26.
  • The medium-term target of creating more jobs for the growing workforce will be better achieved by focusing on capital expenditure.

Brokerage company's estimate regarding GDP

The brokerage company has estimated that the fiscal deficit target for the current financial year will remain at 5.1 percent of GDP. This is as per the target set in the interim budget. Along with this, the government will maintain the target of bringing it to 4.5 percent by the next financial year. The fiscal deficit in the financial year 2023-24 was 5.6 percent of GDP. The brokerage company said that along with this, given the possibility of better tax and non-tax revenue, the fiscal deficit target may be slightly lower i.e. less than 5.1 percent.

RBI's higher than expected dividend boosted enthusiasm

According to the report, the scope on the government treasury front has improved with the receipt of higher than expected dividend from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). This will help in maintaining the pace of capital expenditure and increasing spending on targeted public welfare measures.

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